Joe Nocera argues in the NYTimes today that many banks are using their recapitalization to buy other banks rather than make loans. While he decries this tendency, it still represents some consolidation of the financial sector. That should make it healthier. I think that lending will be down because of fear of recession and tightening credit standards. After making so many bad loans, banks are going to look tougher at credit standards. That seems like a rational response to what has happened. It will make the recession more severe.
What this really points to is that now the recession is not due to lack of liquidity but to fear of lower earnings. The impact of the financial crisis has already been felt. Genie cannot get back in the bottle.
13 minutes ago